Global Economic Perspectives

Hungary At A Glance - January 2008

Below you will find charts for Hungarian male life expectancy, fertility, quarterly GDP growth, inflation, household demand, retail sales, and import and exports growth. Please click on thumbnails for better viewing.

On the left you can see a chart for Hungarian male life expectancy, and on the right there is one showing Hungary's population development. Just why such factors are important, and need to be taken into account along with more standard macro economic data in order to understand what is currently happening in Hungary and what might subsequently spread across Central and

Eastern Europe can be discovered by reading my Hungary analysis:Just Why Is Hungary So Different From the Rest of the EU 10?The basic arguments being advanced here are that long term fertility and life expectancy do matter, since in the long run they condition the labour force and consumption patterns, and with these inflation and internal demand.

Above left you can see Hungarian ferility, and above right the evolution of the population median age, which are also key parameters, since they influence saving and consumption, and with these internal demand growth. On either side here you can see charts for inflationand quarterly GDP.

Next on the left we have a chart for recent movements in private internal consumption (which shows us the state of internal immediate consumption demand) while on the right we can see changes in constuction activity, (which serve as a nice proxy for fixed capital formation). Finally the chart on the bottom left shows a comparison of Hungary's trade balance 2006 and 2007,

while on the right you can see the evolution in non-forint mortgages for immediate consumption purposes. Arguably these are all the data points you need to understand my lengthy post on why we face a possible recession in Hungary, and why post-recession Hungary may be converted into yet another export dependent economy.

2008 Forecasts: The OECD in December revised their 2007 Hungary forecast down to 1.8%, and 2008 to 2.6%. These numbers are very hard to accept. I will be very surprised if we see calendar year 2000 as high as 1.8%, but more to the point 2.6% seems to be assuming a strong rebound, an assumption for which there is no real substantive evidence. In particular even to get what growth we have been getting in 2007 the Hungarian govenment has been running a deficit of around 6% of GDP. This is going to tighten yet further in 2008, so there is no supportive fiscal environment. And as I keep arguing, it is very hard to see a supportive monetary one. The IMF in their October World Economic Outlook also put a similar figure of 2.7%, while the EU commission in November 2007 came in with the same 2.6% as the OECD.

Perhaps the prize for the most exaggerated prediction here must go to GKI Gazdaságkutató Zrt, who argue that Hungary should expect the incredible annual growth rate of 3.5%. My own view is much more nuanced. I think I am reasonably confident in holding to my recession forecast for 2008, although of course, "recession" does not mean negative growth for the whole year (technically it is simply 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth), so we might then go on to see what, between 0.5 and 1% growth over whole year 2008 (and the only really doubt is whether the contraction starts in Q4 2007, or in Q1 2008). But it is what happens in 2009 and 2010 that matters really, and at this point so many variables are in play (and interrelated ones to boot) that I can only say I envy those who have the courage - or the temerity - to stick their necks out). And of course, if we get a large correction in the value of the forint, then all those carefully weighed and weighted forecasts will, without a shadow of a doubt, go straight and directly off into the bin.

Spain At A Glance January 2008

The Spanish economy is now entering quite a significant economic downturn, and with it Spanish society one of those decisive turning points in its history. What happens next is bound to represent a tremendous challenge of the Spanish institutions and the Spanish people. I can only express the sincere hope that they will prove able to rise to the measure of the day. We now present charts for longer term Spanish GDP Growth, construction activity, house prices, inflation and interest rates, cement output, private domestic consumption, retail sales, immigration, fertility and age structure the rise and initiation of the decline in the 25 to 50 age group. Basically we hope you will find this background data useful in assessing the argument which we are presenting on this blog, which is basically the principal reason why Spain has not had a recssion since 1993 was the existence of negative interest rates via the Eurosystem between the spring of 2002 and the autumn of 2006. This phenomenon also coincided with a high point in Spain's demographic evolution where the 25 to 49 age group constituted a virtually unprecedented anywhere 40% of the total population. The combination of these two together served to fuel one of the longest running and strongest housing booms in history. It is this boom which is now in the process of unwinding and correcting itself. Please click on thumbnails for better viewing.

If you look at being presented here, you may well reach the same conclusion as I have that Spain is heading rapidly towards recession. There was already some indication of a slow-down in the third quarter of 2007. Quarter on quarter growth was 0.7% down from 0.9% in quarter two. More significantly perhaps was the fact that the slowdown was lead by a deceleration in domestic demand.

When we come to the fourth quarter we should expect this downward trend in domestic consumption to continue, and this is exactly what we are seeing in the data, first with retail sales, which are now steadily going down month by month, and then in the weakening of construction, and the fact that industrial output started to contract in December (going by the PMI).

Private domestic consumption peaked back in 2004/5, and the rates of increase have been slowing steadily ever since and we should expect this trend to continue. Even more to the point, in Q3 2007 private domestic consumption only grew at 0.37% over Q2, and we have to go back to Q1 2003 to get a slower rate than this.

Also there hasn't been anything approaching a recession in Spain since 1993. We should be asking ourselves why that is. The answer is simple enough. In principle Spain avoided recession in 2002 due to the availability of ultra-cheap (negative) interest rates from the ECB. Should we now be expecting a protracted period of downside underperformance after all that upside overperformance.

Finally two demographic charts. Firstly Spanish fertility. This gives us an idea of the longer term domestic demand for housing. Lastly, a chart for the 25 to 49 age group. This group peaked in 2006, at around what as far as I can see is the highest proportion for any society to date of 40%. Is this just a coincidence, or does it have additional significance in all this?

2008 Forecasts:The Spanish government in December cut its economic growth forecast for Spain in 2008 to 3.1 % down from the previous 3.3% estimate. The direction of the adjustment is certainly the right one, but the value seems unrealistically high. The IMF were forecasting 2.7% in their October World Economic Outlook, but all of this is in the process of constant adjustment. The OECD dropped their expectation from 2.7% to 2.5%, also in December. The Economist Intelligence Unit don't really stick their neck out too far, merely indicating that "GDP growth is expected to slow to an average of just over 2% over 2008-12, from 3.9% in 2006. As a result of high indebtedness on the part of households and companies, domestic consumer and investment demand will grow less than in recent years." More interestingly the EU Commission is forecasting 3% growth driven by a 2.75% increase in private consumption (which seems rather high to me) and a 3% growth in Gross Fixed Capital Formation driven largely by government investment in infrastructure projects which seems much more realistic.

My own view is rather more downside than all of this. A lot really depends on factors outside Spain's control, such as the growth in demand in other European countries and the arrival of tourists across the year. However since I feel that crunch time for Spain is going to be coming in the midst of a more general European slowdown - the OECD for example cut anticipated eurozone growth from 2.6% to 1.9% in December, so I doubt this climate will be too favourable. Still the Spanish government will be spending on civil engineering projects as fast as it possibly can, so I will go for 1.5% growth in 2008, with downside risk, and slower growth to come as we enter 2009 and 2010. I think Spain will definitely see negative growth in at least one quarter, and as this may well turn out to be Q1, this forecast may well be subject to downward revision as and when we get that data. Evidently everything depends on whether or not we get a hard landing here, but to decide on that difficult topic we need to see a lot more real data.

The Spain Economy Watch blog contains data updates from time to time, and extensive monthly reports, the next of which will be at the start of February. I also recommend my two recent extenisive summary posts:
Some Background Charts On the Banking and Construction Crisis Developing in Spain
Spanish Consumer Confidence, Inflation, 3 month libor etc

Italy At A Glance - January 2008

Below you will find charts for Italian male life expectancy, median age, quarterly GDP growth, inflation, household demand, retail sales, and import and exports growth. Basically this data provides a summary of the argument which we are presenting on this blog, which is that in order to understand Italy's long term and ongoing economic malaise you need to understand something about Italian demography, and it's macroeconomic consequences. Please click on thumbnails for better viewing.

On the left you can see a chart for Italian male life expectancy, and on the right there is one showing the evolution of the Italy's median age between 1990 and 2020. Just why such factors are important, and need to be taken into account along with more standard macro economic data in accounting for Italy's stubbornly low growth rate since the mid 1990s is explained in the posts.

With such weak internal consumption growth Italy badly needs to run a trade surplus to obtain the economic growth necessary to make public finances sustainable. In this Italy is similar to Germany and Japan, and different from domestic consumer driven economies like the UK, France and Ireland. Long term fertility and life expectancy really do matter, since they condition labour force growth

and consumption patterns, and with these productivity and the growth of internal credit and consumer demand. Above left you can find Italy's ferility rate, and above right the evolution of the 25 to 49 age group, which has just passed it historic peak. On either side here you can see charts for recent quarterly GDPand long run annual GDP.

Next on the left we have a chart for recent movements in Italian inflation while on the right we can see changes in the trade gap between exports and imports. Inflation is reasonably tamed in Italy (now why?), despite the recent slight uptick, but it is Italy's inability to generate a trade surplus which is the main problem structurally.

Now on the left we have the chart for household consumption and on the right the recent retail sales data. Finally the chart on the bottom left shows recent movements in Italy's business confidence index,while the chart on the right shows the equivalent data for consumer confidence.Bottom line, the evidence of growing weakness is everywhere.

Arguably these are all the data points you need to understand my lengthy post on The Euro Area and Italy's De-Facto Dependence On Exports, as well as why it is that the danger Italy may once more fall into recession presents us with the difficulty of what the credit ratings agencies will say about the resulting impact on the government debt situation.

2008 Forecasts: The OECD in December revised their 2007 Italian forecast down to 1.8%, and the 2008 one down to 1.3%. These numbers are clearly not encouraging, and arguably downside risk for 2008 is greater than the OECD forecast reflects. I will be very surprised if we still see calendar year 2007 as high as 1.8%, but more to the point even 1.3% may be rather on the high side for 2008 if we get a significant deterioration in the external environment, especially in Eastern Europe on which Italy is fairly dependent, and where the Italian banking sector has significant exposure. During 2007 the Italian govenment has been running a fiscal deficit of comfortably below the 3% of GDP required by the EU commission. But since this fortunate situation was in part acheieved by the use of one off measures, and in part by the strong tax inflow from the above trend growth, the government will need to maintain a comparatively tight fiscal stance to keep things on course, and any attempt to further loosen may run into real problems with the EU commission and the credit rating agencies. And as I keep arguing, it is very hard to see an accomodative monetary posture from the ECB in the near future. The IMF in their October World Economic Outlook came in with a similar figure of 1.3% for 2008, the Economist Intelligence Unit is forecasting 1.7% in 2007 and 1.4 in 2008, and the latter 2008 figure was also endorsed by the EU commission in its November forecast.

My own view is rather more downside than all of this. I think Italy will enter recession at some point during 2008, and that we may well have 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth. As most of the forecasts suggest, we have been seeing growth which is somewhat above trend during the upswing in the last couple of years, so it would not be surprising if we now saw some below trend growth. Trend growth (over a 5 year average) in Italy may even have fallen into the 0.5 to 1% range, so if I have to put a number I would say 0.7% with a definite "downside risk" tag attached. The nearest forecast to this I have seen is the 1% one from the Morgan Stanley GEF team. The implications of such sustained low growth are, I think, important, since if Italy cannot find the way to raise trend growth up towards the 2% mark there is simply no way the government debt can be stabilised and sustained. And with each passing year we have one year less to crunch time.

Romania At a Glance - January 2008

The data being present here is both conventional and non conventional, and reflects our in-house view that demographic components need to be taken alongside more conventional macro-economic ones to appreciate growth dynamics, and in particular in the Eastern Europe context. So, alongside charts for the exchange rate and consumer debt, you will also find charts for Romanian male life expectancy, live births and fertility, out migration to Italy and Spain (based on data from ISTAT and INE) as well as quarterly GDP growth, retail sales, inflation, as well as for the trade and current account balances. Basically we hope you will find this background data useful in assessing the argument which we are presenting, namely that Romania's demography,as proxied in long term fertility and out-migration rates (there are over a million people missing from the potential labour force due to out migration alone), means that current growth rates, or anything near them, cannot be sustained without provoking continuous inflation, and loss of export competitiveness, the combination of which may well lead to severe macroeconomic consequences. Please click on thumbnails for better viewing.

In the first place we show the recent decline in the Romanian leu vis-a-vis the euro, together with a chart indicating the growing non-leu indebtedness of the Romanian population (which of course, makes the risk from a correction in the currency even more significant.

To give an indication of the rate at which this problem is growing, according to data from the Romanian central bank, in October 2007 the nominal value of non-government credit advanced year-on-year by 51.4%, with a 40.5% growth in RON-denominated loans and a 63.3% rise in foreign currency-denominated loans when expressed in RON (expressed in EUR, forex loans expanded by 72.4 percent).

Next on the left there is a chart for quarterly GDP growth The Romanian economy has been growing strongly, although not excessively, in recent quarters, but what is driving this growth? On the right you can see the rapid acceleration in retail sales since the middle of this year. This expansion in domestic consumption is in part produced by a strong inflow of remittances the large number of Romanians who are now living and working abroad.

On the left you can see the number of Romanians who have residence in Italy according to ISTAT, and on the right you can see the equivalent number for Spain according to the INE. Exact figures for the total numbers of Romanians abroad are impossible to come by (which makes it impossible to calibrate anything resembling a NAIRU for Romania) for the simple reason the the Romanian authorities do not attempt to obtain an accurate measure as can be seen from the official migration statistics included in the chart on the right.

Next on the left we have a chart where you can see the recent acceleration in Romanian inflation while on the right we can see the upward movement in wages and salaries.As strong growth continues and labour capacity constraints are hit, due to the declining quantity and quality of labour which remains, a critical point is reached when wages and retail prices start to rise rapidly.

Here you can see on the left the consequences of this dynamic for the Romanian trade balance and on the right the correlate of this for the current account deficit. As domestic prices rise, imports become cheaper and get sucked in in ever larger quantities while exports get more expensive and export growth slows.

On the left are the annual numbers of live births - which is really what matters from a labour supply point of view. This has been dropping since the late 60s.Then you can see Romanian male life expectancy, which is compartively low, and this is a big complicating factor in raising participation rates among older workers to replace those who have either left or simply not been born.

2008 Forecasts:Consenus Economics are forecasting economic growth in Romania of 6.3% for 2007, and a slightly slower 5.7% for 2008. The number for 2007 seems about right, although the final reading may even be slightly higher given the governent fiscal stimulus during the second half of the year, while the number for 2008 may be rather on the high side, depending on the pace and extent of the slowdown. Really everything here hinges on whether Romania has a soft or hard landing, and when. My own feeling is that the landing will be a hard one, but the timing is very hard to foresee, and it is the timing which will have the greatest influence on the final outcome. As long as things continue as is, then the consensus forecast looks about right, but will things continue as is? The IMF in their October World Economic Outlook came in with a similar figure of 6.3% for 2007 and 6% for 2008, the Economist Intelligence Unit is forecasting growth in the 5 to 5.5% range for 2008, while the EU Commission put the figure at 5.9% in its November forecast.More interestingly the Commission sugest that this rate is achieveable without producing any significant reduction in the unemployment rate (currently officially around 7% on ILO methodology), which suggests they feel it can mainly be achieved by increasing participation rates, and redeploying labour from non productive to more productive sectors. But - as in Poland, where a large number of citizens are also known to be working abroad - it is very hard to know what credence to give the official unemployment data. Certainly a number of Romanian ministers have been very vocal in recent weeks stating that Romania has an urgent need for anywhere between 500,000 and 1 million workers.

My own view is rather more downside than all of this. A lot really depends on factors outside Romania's control, and internally the party can obviously continue for as long as it is allowed to. One limit point may well be the ability of Romanian citizens to continue contracting debt at this rate. It is noteable that despite the strong inflow of remittances and the inflow of bank funds for credit purposes the leu has been sliding. Should the appetite for credit inside Romania start to dry up, or should changed credit rules force it to, then pressure on the leu may become very strong indeed. Another limit obviously exists on the labour supply front. The IMF put Romania's growth rate at between 5 and 6% in their 2006 annual staff report, and they did this, interestingly enough, by attributing a negative (-0,2%) component to labour supply in a growth accounting study. So they are expecting the growth to come from an injection of capital and TFP. But this is where macroeconomics gets to be a funny business, since much of the growth which actually takes place in modern economies is quite labour intensive, and without that labour relative prices get out of line, and the impact of this mis-alignment is a brake on growth. So basically I would say here that the proof of the pudding is going to be in the eating. If Romania had the labour force to complement its aspirations, then I would say 6% growth would not necesssarily constitute overheating, but under the circumstances it may well do. If I have to put a number on anticipated growth in Romania next year - and that is what forcasts are all about isn't it - then I would go for something in the 3 to 3.5% range, depending on how far we are into the year before the brakes are actually slammed on. That is we may well see growth continuing during Q1 at a pace which is not much slower than the present one, but from there on in things will in all likelihood start to complicate themselves, the only real outstanding question being, I feel, how far and how fast?

Thursday, October 25, 2007

The Global Economic Perspectives Team

Members of the GEP Team

Claus Vistesen
Chief Global Economist

Date of birth: 1984

Education

2007 – BSc in Business Administration and Modern Languages, Copenhagen Business School (Denmark).

2007-2009 – Accepted on the MSc in Applied Economics and Finance, Copenhagen Business School.

Profile

Claus is a macroeconomist with a specialist interest in international macroeconomics. His primary areas of focus and interest are Europe, the Euro Zone, Japan and more specifically the issue of the current global macroeconomic imbalances. He also focuses on demographics, monetary policy and how these factors interact with the imbalances. He also specialises in the sphere of new web technologies - termed web 2.0 and social media, and the associated communication tools. He is currently, and in relation with his final undergraduate thesis, embedded as an external consultant in an international health insurance company where he is examining business applications and opportunities in social media and web 2.0.

Claus is currently enaged in a research investigation into the potential impacts of demographic changes on economic growth processes, meanwhile he is also busily engaged in detailed economic analysis and forecasting using weblogs as his principle communication vehicle (see links below). Apart from his own personal weblog Alpha.Sources he is also a regular contributor at the collaborative scientific weblog Demography.Matters as well as the global economic weblog Global.Economy.Matters. Lastly, Claus is also pursuing his fetishism for France which apart from fluency in Danish and English also has granted him near fluency in French.

Claus is also a co-founder of the newly founded economics think tank Global Economic Perspectives.

Links to weblogs;

Alpha Sources
Demography Matters
Global Economy Matters

Paola Silli
Reasearch Associate, Eurozone

Date of Birth: 1980

Education

2003 – B.A. Economics University of Bergamo (Italy), November 2003

2006 – MBA Marketing Major Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto.

Profile

Paola is a macroeconomist and business marketer currently based in Toronto. She is accomplished in economics and marketing as well as possessing notable software and programming skills across a wide range of applications (Pascal, SQL, E-stat, SPSS, E-views, J D Edwards, Ediway, CERG, Hyperion & MS Office). She is a fluent English and Italian speaker with intermediate skills in German and French.

Paola also boasts a long and diverse track record in terms of work experience in variety of Italian, US and Canadian companies and organizations. Paola’s principal focus is on the Italian economy and its interaction with the European Union as well as the Euro Zone. Paola also specializes in migration flows and the human capital component associated with these flows, as well as in international trade and global trade dynamics (with a particular emphasis on the India/Italy interface) and the Eastern European transition economies.

Paola is a contributor to the Italian Economy Watch weblog, to the Global Economy Matters weblog and and is a founding member of the new online think tank Global Economic Perspectives.

Links to weblogs:

Italian Economy Watch
Global Economy Matters

Edward Hugh
Principal Investigator

Date of birth: 1948

Education:

1974 – BSc. Economics, London School of Economics

1975 – MSc. Victoria University of Manchester

Doctoral Thesis (uncompleted): technological change, forms of communication, patterns of thought. Victoria University of Manchester 1975-78.

Profile

Edward is an economic demographer and macroeconomist, who specialises in growth and productivity theory, demographic processes and their impact on macro performance, and migration flows.

Edward is based in Barcelona, and is currently engaged in research on ageing, longevity, fertility and migration, and the impact of all of these on economic growth. He is currently working on a book "Ageing, Fertility and the Global Imbalances". He is a regular contributor to a number of economics weblogs, including India Economy Blog, A Fistful of Euros, Global Economy Matters and Demography Matters. He was, in fact, a founding member of all these weblogs.

Edward follows in detail the Indian, Italian, German and Japanese economies as well as the main trends in the Eastern Transition economies.

He is a fluent speaker of Spanish, French and Catalan, and has a good working knowledge of a number of other romance languages and German.

He is also a founding member of the newly formed economic policy think tank "Global Economic Perspectives".

Links to weblogs;

Edward's Website
Demography Matters
A Fistful of Euros
Indian Economy Blog
Global Economy Matters

Manuel Alvarez Rivera
Head of Global Political Analysis

Date of birth: 1966

Education

1988: Degree in Mathematics from University of Puerto Rico at Mayagüez after which he pursued further studies in Political Science at the University of Pittsburgh where he also worked (1992-1999) at the University Center for Social and Urban Research (UCSUR), eventually becoming a systems analyst.

Profile

Manuel is an accomplished political scientist with a special interest in European political processes.

With the advent of the World Wide Web, Manuel began publishing (in 1995) two election sites, "Elections in Puerto Rico" and "Election Resources on the Internet", at and . His work on these sites caught the attention of the Commonwealth Elections Commission of Puerto Rico, and in late 1999 he left UCSUR and returned home to work for the Commission as the agency's webmaster, extensively developing their site. During the years he was in charge on the Elections Commission's website, it was showcased by Puerto Rico's Office of Management and Budget (OGP) as a model for other government agencies to follow.

In 2003 he left the Commission, and the following year began consulting work for Univisión de Puerto Rico. Since that time he has been largely working on further development of his websites, particularly the internationally-oriented , which now has sections covering the electoral systems of most Western European countries, as well as the "old" Commonwealth (Canada, Australia, New Zealand and South Africa) plus Mexico and Brazil. Since 2006 he also publishes an election blog, "Electoral Panorama" , where he covers electoral events in a wide variety of countries, including the 2006 mid-term elections in the United States. Finally, since early 2007 he has become a regular contributor to the "Global Economy Matters" blog , and is a founding member of the new online think tank Global Economic Perspectives.

Links to sites and weblogs:

Election Resources on the Internet
Electoral Panorama
Global conomy Matters

Aapo Markkanen
Research Associate, Institutions, Media and the Internet

Date of Birth: 1982

Education

2002-2007 – Master of Administrative Science, University of Tampere (Finland); graduation in December 2007

Profile

Aapo is an organisational scientist currently writing his Master’s Thesis on change management in local governmental organisations. Hailing from Europe’s (or la terra abitabile’s, for that matter) latitudinal frontier, he has developed a wide conversance in the Baltic region and the EU’s Northern Dimension, as well as in two other geographical – though neither mental nor cultural, as he believes – peripheries: the Balkans, and the Southern Caucasia. Out of interests both civic and academic, Aapo also has an enduring interest in any discourse concerning the so-called Nordic welfare model and its sustainability, whether economic or social.

Apart from his native Finnish, Aapo has fluency in English and – having studied one academic year at the University of Bologna’s Institute for Central Eastern and Balkan Europe – an occasionally good working knowledge in Italian. His German and Swedish skills remain stubbornly intermediate.

Aapo is a contributor to Global Economic Matters and Demography Matters weblogs, and also a founding member of the Global Economic Perspectives think tank. His own attempt at a personal weblog is Aapotsikko, the Finno-Ugric pun in its title being as modest as its actual content.

Links to weblogs:

Aapotsikko
Demography Matters
Global Economy Matters

Marcelo Rinesi
Research Associate, Technology Strategy

Date of birth: 1979

Education

Completing an undergraduate degree on mathematics at the Universidad de Buenos Aires (Buenos Aires, Argentina)

Profile

Marcelo is an applied mathematician, programmer, and technology consultant. His main focus lies on the interaction between emerging technologies, business, and society. He works or has worked for organization in the fields of technology consulting, enterprise communication systems, financial market analysis, law, education, and pharmaceutics distribution. He’s currently Associate Director for the Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies, as well as posting articles at a number of weblogs, including Global Economy Matters.

He has also published articles related to technology, business and Argentine life in magazines and online sites like Wired, Computer Bits, and The Straits Times, as well as short science fiction stories. He has also taught introductory college-level mathematics, and participated as speaker or jury in academic events and competitions related to mathematics and computer science.

Links to Websites and Weblogs

IEET
Global Economy Matters
Demography Matters
Hectowords
Evening Distribution

Global Economic Perspectives

Welcome To Global Economic Perspectives

Hungary At A Glance - January 2008

Spain At A Glance January 2008

Italy At A Glance - January 2008

Romania At a Glance - January 2008

Thursday, October 25, 2007

The Global Economic Perspectives Team

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